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Toledo, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for 2 Miles ESE Toledo OH
National Weather Service Forecast for: 2 Miles ESE Toledo OH
Issued by: National Weather Service Cleveland, OH
Updated: 5:08 am EDT Jul 7, 2025
 
Today

Today: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1pm.  Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. North wind 5 to 7 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Chance
T-storms

Tonight

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm  in the evening.
Mostly Cloudy

Tuesday

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Light east wind.
Mostly Sunny

Tuesday
Night
Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. Light and variable wind.
Mostly Cloudy

Wednesday

Wednesday: A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am.  Partly sunny, with a high near 84. Calm wind becoming south around 6 mph in the afternoon.  Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Chance
T-storms

Wednesday
Night
Wednesday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Chance
T-storms then
Mostly Cloudy
Thursday

Thursday: A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 2pm.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Chance
Showers then
Chance
T-storms
Thursday
Night
Thursday Night: A chance of thunderstorms before 8pm.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Chance
T-storms then
Mostly Clear
Friday

Friday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Mostly Sunny
then Chance
T-storms
Hi 81 °F Lo 66 °F Hi 85 °F Lo 70 °F Hi 84 °F Lo 68 °F Hi 86 °F Lo 69 °F Hi 88 °F

Hazardous Weather Outlook
 

Today
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. North wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
 
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Tuesday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Light east wind.
Tuesday Night
 
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. Light and variable wind.
Wednesday
 
A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 84. Calm wind becoming south around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday
 
A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Thursday Night
 
A chance of thunderstorms before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday Night
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then a chance of showers between 8pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Saturday
 
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Saturday Night
 
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for 2 Miles ESE Toledo OH.

Weather Forecast Discussion
288
FXUS61 KCLE 071152
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
752 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly push south across the region today
before stalling in the Ohio Valley tonight and Tuesday as high
pressure briefly builds southward into the Great Lakes. The
front will lift back into the region Wednesday and will then
oscillate slightly through the weekend. A stronger system may
finally push the front out by Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The focus of the near term will be the cold frontal passage
expected today and the associated showers and thunderstorms. The
main message is that confidence has increased for higher
coverage of showers and thunderstorms late this morning through
the afternoon, especially for inland portions of NE Ohio and NW
PA in the 15-19Z time range, but exact locations remain
somewhat uncertain.

Early this morning, the cold front was oriented over Lake Erie
and extended southwest through southern parts of Indiana and
Illinois in a quasi-zonal mid/upper flow pattern. A few showers
were lingering near the front over Lake Erie and the adjacent
lakeshore areas, but these have struggled to hold together given
the diurnal minimum and synoptic support still well to the
north and west. A weak mid/upper shortwave trough seen on
Infrared satellite and water vapor imagery was progressing
across the corn belt. This shortwave will help to slowly push
the front southeastward through the region later this morning
through the afternoon as it lifts through the central Great
Lakes, but the strongest mid-level flow and associated synoptic
support will be displaced to the north with the deamplifying
shortwave. This points to convection developing along and ahead
of the cold front (and any outflow boundaries) today where low-
level convergence interacts with building instability, but there
will not be a lot of mid- level flow for convection to tap
into, so slow moving convection with locally heavy rainfall will
be the main impact late this morning through the afternoon.
After collaboration with WPC, a slight risk ERO was introduced
for portions of eastern Ohio and NW PA surrounded by the ongoing
marginal risk given the growing confidence for slow moving
convection with efficient rainfall rates. The sparse coverage of
showers early this morning will allow for fairly strong heating
through the morning. Forecast soundings suggest MLCAPE reaching
1000-1500 J/Kg by 16Z with little to no capping, so expect
convection to start to fire after 15Z as stated above. PWATs of
1.75 to 1.95 inches will be in the 90th percentile of daily
climatology, and this along with the overall weak mid-level
flow, deep warm cloud layers, and deep layer flow mostly
parallel to the front will support slowly moving convection with
locally very heavy rainfall, as well as potential training. As
stated above, exact locations remain uncertain, but consensus
among CAMS is for a lot of coverage in inland portions of NE
Ohio and NW PA between 15 and 19Z, so increased PoPs to likely
and categorical in these areas. The rest of the area will see
passing showers and thunderstorms too, but a lower risk compared
to inland NE Ohio and NW PA since the front should clear NW Ohio
and the lakeshore areas fairly early this morning (before the
new convection fires).

Localized severe weather remains a secondary concern. NE Ohio
and NW PA remain in a marginal risk in the SWODY1 from the SPC,
and this is reasonable with the aforementioned instability and
the frontal passage. The biggest limiting factor will be the
weak mid-level flow which results in deep layer shear under 30
knots and low-level shear under 10 knots, so organized severe
weather is not expected. However, localized downburst winds are
possible from precip loading, especially where higher daytime
heating maximizes low-level lapse rates.

Convection will gradually exit to the south and east of the
region this evening and early tonight as the front settles to
the south. Weak surface high pressure sliding south into the
Great Lakes behind the front late tonight and Tuesday will keep
most of the area dry, however, kept some slight chance PoPs from
the NBM near US 30 and points south through Tuesday given the
front nearby.

Temperatures will remain very warm and humid today, with highs
in the low/mid 80s expected. Slightly cooler Tuesday, with
mainly low 80s. Lows tonight will be more comfortable, with
low/mid 60s expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The frontal boundary from earlier in the week will be the main
driver to the weather through late week as it slowly lifts back
north Tuesday night and Wednesday in response to a distinct
mid/upper shortwave trough progressing through the northern and
central Great Lakes. The best forcing looks to again be
displaced to the north, but NBM slight chance to chance PoPs
look good for Wednesday as higher low-level moisture and
instability begin to shift back northward coincident with
daytime heating. This should yield widely scattered convection.
Confidence in the placement of the front decreases Wednesday
night through Thursday night. In one respect, the front should
sink back southward behind the shortwave Wednesday night, but
even if it does, it may creep back northward Thursday and
Thursday night ahead of another upstream mid/upper shortwave
approaching the northern Plains. Kept NBM slight chance to
chance PoPs through Thursday night, which places the highest
coverage with daytime heating Thursday, but confidence is low
given the uncertainty on frontal placement.

High temperatures will generally stay in the mid 80s Wednesday
and Thursday, with lows in the low/mid 60s Tuesday night
gradually climbing into mostly mid/upper 60s Wednesday and
Thursday nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Quasi-zonal flow will persist for the end of the week and
through the weekend, which will essentially keep the frontal
boundary quasi-stationary over or near the region. This will
maintain difficult to time showers and thunderstorms at times
as weak shortwaves ripple through the flow and interact with the
boundary, but there will be plenty of dry time and no wash
outs. Kept NBM temperatures and PoPs given uncertainty with the
placement of the boundary, so the main message is seasonably
warm and humid conditions with scattered showers and
thunderstorms at times through the weekend. The aforementioned
shortwave trough in the northern Plains may finally kick the
front out of the region by Monday, and this could bring the next
potential for more of an organized round of convection
depending on timing.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
A cold front extends from near Detroit to Fort Wayne at 12Z.
This front will increase its pace and is expected to reach CLE
towards 16Z and CAK towards 20Z before exiting to the
southeast. Warm and moist conditions both ahead of and along the
front will support showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy
rainfall this afternoon. Have showers returning to FDY/ERI
towards 15Z, and CLE around 16Z. Thunderstorms today will
likely have IFR visibilities, possibly dropping to below a mile
at times. Rain will increase along the SW to NE oriented front
around 16Z with generally widespread showers and thunderstorms
likely to impact MFD/CAK/YNG. Included wind gusts to around 20
knots with thunderstorms but there is a low potential for a
thunderstorm to produce winds as high as 40-50 knots. Will need
to update TAFs as thunderstorms start to fill in this afternoon
to reflect better timing. Otherwise winds will shift from
southwesterly ahead of the front to northerly behind it at
generally 10 knots or less. Most locations will experience an
MVFR deck behind the front but could start to see some MVFR
visibilities developing after 05Z given lingering moist
layer conditions. IFR ceilings and visibilities seem most likely
at CAK/YNG as subsidence increases late tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR with low ceilings and possibly fog are
possible late tonight. Non-VFR will be possible with scattered
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday, especially
during the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will settle south across Lake Erie this morning. Winds
will go from southwesterly at 5-10 knots to northerly at 5-15 knots
behind the front. The northerly flow will result in some choppiness
in the nearshore waters as waves increase to around 2 feet this
afternoon and possibly as high as 3 feet tonight. High pressure will
build over Lake Erie on Tuesday with light onshore winds by
afternoon.

Generally expecting good marine conditions through the remainder of
the week although scattered thunderstorms will be possible each
afternoon from Wednesday through Saturday. Winds will tend to be 10
knots or less with waves of 2 feet or less.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Garuckas
NEAR TERM...Garuckas
SHORT TERM...Garuckas
LONG TERM...Garuckas
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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